Division 2 relegation battle

TFF's third season is fast coming to a end, with it all eyes turn to potential promotions and relegation within the footballing world. With two teams (Hull being promoted to division 1 and West Brom being relegated to division 2) already having had their fate decided. Today we take a look at Division two's battle to avoid the drop were a incredible 8 teams are involved in that dog fight.

We access the likely hood of each teams survival, taking a look at the last five remaining fixtures, current form and each managers previous experience of relegation battles for each of the 8 sides involved.

20th - Preston North End

Preston sit 20th in the current standings in Division two and out of the 8 teams involved in the basement battle look the most likely to be playing division three football next season... Written on in the latest power rankings as down and out Preston have hosted a mini revival of late with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 games. Does it appear too little to late for Preston ? a 6 point gap certainly isn't a mountain to climb.

Preston don't have their fate in their own hand's which so often is the main cause of team's going down or going up. However they do have the chance to spice things up down the bottom with some interesting games against 18th place Forest, and fellow struggler's Birmingham and Brighton. A win against Forest certainly will put life back into their bid for survival and will bring them within a single point of the side placed 18th. Their game vs Brighton could be a key game should they pick up a win vs Forest. Best case for Preston is them bringing Barnsley into the mix. Those on 34 points look to be a step to far in this writers opinion.

The panel show seemed certain in their assessment of Preston with relegation the verdict.

Relegation likelihood - 90%

19th - Huddersfield

Huddersfield Town are next up and prop up the next relegation spot in division two sitting in 19th place. Huddersfield importantly have a manager in place that has had experience with dealing with relegation battles, Pavel can draw on his experience of finishing 14th and three points clear of the bottom 3 in last season's basement battle and so immediately has some edge over managers around him. They currently sit 5 points from safety this time around with 15 to play for so by no means dead and buried, 2 wins in 6 would suggest there still is some life in Pavel's Huddersfield.

Huddersfield again like Preston don't have their fate in their own hands. When we take a look at their remaining 5 fixtures it only gets worse !

Huddersfield face 3 of the top 6 in their remaining 5 games including a difficult trip to QPR.

Barnsley is the stand out game here but Hudd's would need to find wins against two other sides on this list to have some chance of survival. A win against Barnsley will only really help out Nottingham Forest's cause without any more win's.

The panel show also dismissed Pavel's chances of survival and looking at that fixture list so dose this writer.

Relegation likelihood - 95%

18th- Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest are the last team occupying a relegation place at the current time of writing this. Nottingham's recent form has picked up with the arrival of new manager Jay Jones from Spurs, with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 6. Many had written of Forest under their previous manager but Jay Jones looks to have given the club some life. With no previous relegation experience Jay will be taking this step by step hoping to pull of what some thought impossible 10 games ago.

Nottingham have some pretty big games running up to the end of the season. Firstly a stand out game vs Preston where as mentioned previously a loss for Forest puts them in all sorts of bother. A win realistically could spur on a forest revival with winnable games against Derby and Leyton amongst other fixtures.

Nottingham are only a single win away from placing Barnsley into the bottom 3 while Preston have stepped up Forest can look to Derby who's recent poor form could provide the club with a second life line.

18th place was widely up for debate with most divided on who occupies the last relegation spot.

Relegation likelihood - 60%

17th - Barnsley

Barnsley would shake your hand if you offered them 17th place and for the season to end today. They currently sit 17th and currently safe from relegation. Mick will bring the passion her as a loyal Barnsley fan and will be playing for more then pride itself. Mick also has previous relegation battle experience from season 1 where Barnsley survived the drop by 2 point's before going on to excel in season 2. Mick's experience, personal involvement and his deep understanding of his team compared to new managers at new teams could provide Barnsley with the extra edge.

Barnsley are currently without a win in the last 6 games having drawn 4 and lost 2. The lack of win's is alarming and has seen Barnsley slide into a relegation battle.

Barnsley's biggest concern will be fixtures against playoff chasing Wednesday and Sunderland's recent upturn in form thanks to their managerial change. Huddersfield again as mentioned the key game here. Forest have a kinder run-in two and a couple of wins for Forest could spell disaster for Barnsley win's in the last 5 are hard to see with the quality of teams they are coming up against.

Relegation likelihood - 75%

16th - Brighton

Brighton are on a surge with 10 point's picked up from the last 6 games whilst remaining unbeaten. This is the perfect time of the season to be hitting such form and so Brighton should fancy their chances. Brighton's manager also has experience of relegation escapes - last season avoiding the drop by a single point with 3 wins coming in the last 4 games saving their skin.

Brighton have some pretty interesting fixtures too... games against Derby and Preston give Brighton the perfect opportunity to pull clear.

Brighton remain 4 points clear with 15 to play for coupled with their recent form you'd be forgiven for assuming a couple of win's here would realistically see them safe and sound. Forest have a kind run in so you'd imagine attention would then turn to Barnsely

who's run in looks far more difficult then both Brighton's and Forest's. Brighton's current form would suggest to me that they are safe.

Relegation likelihood - 40%

15th - Derby County

We're going to do this without any bias so let's jump into it. Unlike managers at Barnsley and Brighton, Derby find themselves with a new manager very much like rivals Nottingham Forest a manager without relegation experience. However unlike rivals Forest Derby's new manager hasn't seen a spike in results. Derby like Barnsley find themselves without a win in their last 6 picking up only 3 points in that time.

Derby can be spured on with their fixture list, Ben Clifford's first 3 games in charge being against Gillingham, Swansea and Hull 3 of the top 6. Blackburn will be the final straw in what Derby can consider a very difficult run of fixtures.

Key fixture's here are against Rival's Nottingham Forest, Brighton and Birmingham. Thanks to Derby's 4 point lead on Forest you'd expect them to be safe with a win over Forest (Making them 7 points clear at best with 9 to play for by the time the last three games come around) and then any positive result against either Brighton or Birmingham would seal it.

Derby's biggest problem and thing going against them is of course current league form. 0 wins in 6 certainly needs to change if Derby want to survive.

Relegation likelihood - 50%

14th - Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient also find themselves with a new manager, After two successful back to back promotions life in Division two was always going to be difficult and perhaps it's unsurprising they find themselves towards the lower half of the table. However Leyton find themselves with some wiggle room here being 6 points clear of 18th. However they can't be counted out just yet, TFF being the competitive league it is teams can easily sleepwalk into a dangerous situation.

Leyton have a pretty awful run of games coming up and so that 6 point gap they currently have could well be erased.

They come up against Swansea, Hull and Blackburn 3 of the top 6 with a well drilled Brentford sandwiched in the middle. There saving grace could be Nottingham forest in the last game of the season should it come to that.

Leyton have mixed form at the moment in time but importantly far better then sides like Derby and Barnsley below them.

Relegation likelihood - 20%

13th - Birmingham CITY

Birmingham have the best advantage of all the side's still mathematically realistic danger of relegation. 7 points clear with 15 to play a single win would probably be enough to kee the blues up considering a number of sides below them play each other. Andrew has the advantage of knowing his side inside out having been in Birmingham for the entirety of TFF. The only thing Andrew wouldn't be familiar with is the relegation battle they have faced this season after pushing for top 6 for the previous two seasons.

Birmingham have some difficult games, but being faced with the fact that a single win would more then likely seem them secure division 2 football then Andrew and Birmingham fans can relax especially considering the final two games of the season.

Of course with teams at the bottom playing each other Birmingham could be safe in a couple of games time anyway without having had much to do.

Amazingly the only teams that haven't been in the bottom 3 this season from this list of 8 are Derby and Leyton. Birmingham's fine run of form 10 points in the last 6 games have pushed them into what looks like almost certain safety.

Relegation likelihood - 5%

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